Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
